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ǰλã > ݆̥̌WԺ > INM
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Դ:݆̥̘IW     l:(2014-05-01)           С

 һ֣_һҹ˾“|”Lһҹ˾Ŀwӡ

 

һ컨
 

컨ָIИIĮaƷգڅ_ӽĠBMͶY֮ǰ҂_IһNrᘌͬroͶYДҪҕИIǰҲPעI|

 

1ѽ_컨ИI——O͵ИIFИIͶYCھЉŔཛIIͳɱ沢ӄIUЈ~ͮaƷaN۵߅HɱĶMһЈډ@îaƷĶr

 

沢߅Hɱ½ͲǺõͶY˵Ƅµļ沢ǰЈrԭtMxڽx󲻾߂ͶYrֵ

 

ЩИIʒlĩìFO߸IڴͬI֮rOߝڵͶYrֵДИIccPIcPעЩIIJُCĴF˾

 

2aIµf컨屻☋µ컨δγ܇ИIͨӍИI@ЩИIͨѽ^ͶYCڼgŽ“”——ԭеИIƽµPעfƽPϵ¼gaIÓfaƷͷՌȡȫȡfĮaƷ$˹늄܇(TSLA)$ $O(AAPL)$ ĄŒИIě_

 

3ИI컨в_ИI@ЩИIҪô̎dИIIγδЈyԹӋ͹ܲҪô“M”aƷ|LtˎaƷͷ@ИIvǂIēu@ţɌӳFҪcھЩИI߂I܊λăI——СИIĴ˾

 

҂ȫԏĹ˾ИIͨ^3c̽ӑ˽һҹ˾ИIλδgc_1. Л]컨2. 挦컨IЩʲô

 

̘Iģʽ

 

̘IģʽָIṩЩaƷIʲô;ֶlMٍȡ̘IIͨ^͑ṩùܵĮaƷ@ȡNIͨ^NN۷ʽֱNlWُȵ̘Iģʽ@ȡȵ
 

о̘Iģʽxڣ

 

Dzǂ

@ӵ܉m

ֹM

 

@}քe̘Iģʽĸ̘Iډ̘Iģʽĸͱډλһwɹ˾δͶYrֵǰָIӯģʽĸָFǰߵډͨ^Ŭֹ˾MĴr

 

ef“N۵ĮaƷ|ϛ]ж^eǴXֱNӯģʽͬڂyXNĺĸȫֱNWϹϵy“´ƽ_r̫пhڴijɱ@ֱNWjɞıډPCǴ컨İlչg

 

$ٶ(BIDU)$ ӯģʽ׃FgIJMĸȰlݘľ޴󔵓ʹđܛډͨ^M@ȡ׃F$滢360(QIHU)$ ̘Iģʽаlٵķ푑ĸ۷e޴ÑȺɸډ360þ޴ÑŬMIһֱ]пͻԵļgMչٶ۷eľ޴󔵓͑ñډ֮360 δ߂ٶȵ

 

yyе̘IģʽϢҪcǵͳɱJ͸߶ȵډÑAЇyτڄӳɱMȵYyкyc֮һƳUƶСɷyеÌܵ|YͶYxĴ̓ȵعɷyеͶY

 

Ҫ̘Iģʽ龰
 

ʲôXaƷ߀ǷlXǏĬFеNھZ߀DŽµNĮaƷaKMgЎׂhʲôk܉ghpIЛ]@ŬSNĔU߅Hɱ½ȵ

 

ͨf҂MͶYЩһԒf̘IģʽI̘IģʽMһ漰I̎ĮaI朵ĵλ̎ڮaI朵߀aIЩ̘ͬIģʽPIą^eʲôЩжrIʲôIc͑PϵǷ߂܏ճȵ@ЩQԓ̘Iģʽܷɹ

 

Iĺĸ

̘IģʽlģɹhٔIPIǾ߂䘋̘Iģʽĺĸ

 

ĸăݰɖ|YI܊FаlIIչģʽϢgؔղlչvʷȵ

 

1һԣ

һͬ“һ”ָIijһIھ͔UչaƷյpRƷ^һƷ֮ИI漰aƷSڟrrcӹaƷھչ֮ͬƷ^IꝙʳƷs㷿خaεȷIӾɢIһԛQIͰlչԳֲигɾ

 

2

аlFѽ@õ܉ṩߘ˜ʮaƷͷյMšǰlȵļgõĺĸijһIļgډ猣gsһΕrڃȱIIȃgݕaЧԼaɱăмgݵI܉@øИIƽˮƽĻ؈?jҙnyзӖVȚ\ֵ϶\Z‡`ж?

 

3߃ݣ

IİlչͶYߎ~II߼F꠵|PϵI|PϵI߶h“ͶYҪͶ”@x@һcҪIߺ͹F꠳ɆTıͨ^ۙУͨ^„йf•棩Ы@ȡIİlչИI˙CʩȷϢ

 

҂ҪДƷֺ̓rֵ^@ЩضĬӰһIǰ;ҲgӵӰ푵ͶYߵĻ؈`Cһ˲пܰһ෴˲һܿܰһɲܶһI߾ijɹIsпܚ^΢ܛһ͵IĸTl˵صĿOҪ

 

oǺӣЈډ

oǺһNͨIߵTౣϴʩĺĸoǺӵҪMɲȫ҂߀ͨ^Žׂl_JIoǺӵٺ\

 

1؈

ĚvʷϿIǷп^Ļ؈؈ҪָëROEɖ|؈ʣROAYa؈ʣROICͶY؈ʣ@׷N؈ָ˷քemڲ̘ͬIģʽcҪ̘I߉݋ДIĸ߻؈Щ昋QЩܷmIȡ˺ηNʩԱϸ߻؈ʵijmҪжŰSWOT

 

2Dɱ

IĮaƷǷ߂^ߵDɱDɱָÑñ˾aƷʹIƮaƷraijɱrgɱcfʹñ˾aƷaijɱֵ^ߵDɱ΢źڱ|c΢ŲeÑf΢ŶŴT಻^ߵDܣɱ΢Ȱlݾ^̘Irֵ

 

׌Ñx񸂠ֵĮaƷfIĮaƷÑfճԺهô@I͓б^ߵDɱ˽IDɱҪMߺʹߵĽǶȿ]ijRʹT̘I߉݋ДDɱ߂횽YόHrC

 

3WjЧ

Iͨ^ЩֶNۮaƷwfͨ^NTNBi߀ǾWNNNֶηքeIN~yIΑIľWjҎģЧWjЧָͨINۻվWj@ЩWjĴڞÑṩ˱ÑĵıԾܮaճ

 

SÑIărֵҲuھWjҎģĔUŴȫfyеĠIIWc鲼ȫСڇҪҲоWjֲȶȵ؅^yоиVľWjЧyеÑIrֵҲ

 

4ɱc߅Hɱ

IijɱӵɱěQЩIijɱܷИIλɱܲSNҎģU½IҪLõرֳɱݲҪЃڌֵYԴԭσݣԼԽaˇ̃ݣԽĵλãݣЈҎģҎģݣǸ͵ɱͳɱһǸëëһNݸwFëIͨжr

 

5ƷЧ

aƷǷƷЧŒڴÑƷƵжh猦rжôrָُIОĵһҪƷƵx܉ӳaƷյIJ|ƷλͿڱƷƵărֵ܉׃MߵُIОĶIƽˮƽĸֵƷЧĮaƷՑԓ

 

к܏ıR

ه͝M

һˮƽۃr

IĻ̓rֵ^

M߁fһNُIx

 

6IȡЩʩ@ЩݣoǺӣg
 

L

LԂδijL^ȥҪ컨ՓۿhLҪo_ضdИIfvʷąxڳИIf^LrgĚvʷúwһĽڣ܉ṩһЩ酢߀ǺбҪ

 

ָ

Lr

IIյ׃

Ҫ͑N~

Ҫֱ^

 

ëˮƽwFIĸ

ëˮƽ

ɱ

ˮ

I޳ͶYֵ׃ԼII

挍ăI-ö

 

FʣNƷṩڄյĬF/룩

IFʣIӮaĬF~/룩

ɬFFree Cash FlowɬF=\IF-Y֧

ɬF/IrֵFCF/EVIrֵ=ֵ+Ϣգ
עɬFIrֵӋ㷽ʽɅǎٿ

 

؈ˮƽ
1ROEɖ|؈Yaʣ
2ROAYa؈ʣ
3ROICͶY؈ʣ
 

ע؈ָ˵Ӌ㷽ǎٿƻP̿ƕҪעӋ^회漰̓YaĿMв@ȡڽIӵ挍ֵIJҊһ“挍ă”YaIJб޳YacIIӟoPă
 

4Ű

5

6SWOT

 

 ȫԣPIǬFcF

YaY

 

FYaYaЬF𼰬FȃrıIĬF

DQFYaYaYaͶYYaȵ

IYa

ؓY
Ϣؓ

oϢؓ

\IYcYD
~cҪǷ

؛

YDr\IY׃cһ\IY׃ӵIJֵ

 

\IY׃=A+-+A+؛
Äe˵XٍXwfI\IY׃ӞֵA+>+A+؛ο͑đcο͑AտஔһPoϢJMI\Y@һN^؄e̘Iģʽ磺K͇@N̘Iģʽ@ʾIЈеďݵλ
@ָƱƱһNYIđƱnjο͑ƱwFο͑oIƱ÷ӳIcκ֮gPϵ͵λҲһN̘Iģʽ

 

FuIPIָԱYˮ^IFmI߂аlͶY¿ɷ֞׷Nr
FֵͽIFֵ--------Iܰȫ
FֵIFֵؓIYlyнĬFIF֧I߀㷀횽YˮƽuIпܴڵؔLU
FֵͽIF鶼ֵؓ˾ؔՆ}Ȼڼҹ˾ДҪlչڅҪĸЈډFacebookǂyI߀Ҏܞ
FֵֵؓIFֵ
fIͶYаl߀֧@Nr횾wcҪДĬFһ֣ͶY߀ǻIYĠrǬFHH߀ͶYrֵ

ڶֵ֣

һI̘IģʽQ˹ֵģʽ
 

1YaIyIԃYaֵʽӯֵʽo
2pYaI՘IӯֵʽYaֵʽo
3“WIÑcЈ~hNʞ
4dИI͸߿ƼIЈ~hNʞ

ֵcIrֵ

1oՓʹһNֵֵһNЧą

2ֵ=Ƀr*ɷݔֵxͬڹɃrĺx

 

ֵЈͶYߌIrֵJ“”ǽ^ֵĸߵHЈͨ100|Ԫֵ郞ijI˜500|ԪֵtһHI˜ǧ|ֵtIߟoϵĵλֵx^ǽ^ֵ

 

3ֵ^
 

ȻֵwFIôͬIȾͷdzЈx磺ͬӰҕclIAxֵֵ419|ۺϼs68|ԪSDWAֵ25|ԪAxֵ201213|ţ2.12|ԪͬډS2.13|Ԫ@ɼҹ˾һֵsһˮƽɴƜyAxֵܱܿظ߹Ȼ߹ֵwFЈAڶr߹͹Iu@һʾ̖ͶY߿Բȡ_

 

Ҋֵ^
 

aͬͬĿЈȃrͬһҹ˾ڲͬЈϵֵ^磺AHɱȃr
bͬIֵȃrIIջͬI^һعc“ؿƱ^
cƘIIֵȃrIIвͬ회Iղֺͬ^Ϻһc“A^

 

4IrֵEV, Enterprise ValueIrֵ=ֵ+ؓEVĽ^ֵxͨcӯָ˽MÁӳIӯؓcֵ֮gPϵ磺EBITDA/EVָÁ^IrֵIī@

 

ֵ

 

1ֵ/YaP/BЃ

Ya_ПoشMĿ
YaҪ޳̎ԷӳI挍ĽIYaYЃҪڱ^вx^ֵox
ҳIஔLĕrg΃ȵĚvʷߺƽnЃʅ^g?u|?һI3Ľךvʷ
ҳͬИI^LךvʷI_nЃʅ^g

 

2ֵ/P/Eӯ
 

_ПoشMĿ

Ҫ޳̎ԷӳI挍ăӯҪڱ^вx^ֵox

ҳIஔLĕrg΃ȵĚvʷߺƽnӯʅ^g?u|?һI3Ľךvʷ
ҳͬИI^LךvʷI_nӯʅ^g

 

3ֵ/N~P/SN
 

N~_IПoشMĿ
ҳIஔLĕrg΃ȵĚvʷߺƽnNʅ^g?u|?һI3Ľךvʷ
ҳͬИI^LךvʷI_nNʅ^g

 

PEGӳӯcL֮gıֵPϵPEG=ӯ/LͨJԓֵ=1ʾֵֵ>1tf߹ֵ<1f͹@NͶY`ЃHӯʵoָx

 

.׶ķLɹֵʽ
 

rֵ=*8.5+AL*2ʽеһÿTTMʮµ棩ALʞδ3LOijIÿTTM0.3AδLʞ15%t˾Ƀr=0.3*8.5+15*2=11.55Ԫԓʽб^ČrֵӋYcֵָ˽YɆΪʹ

 

4߀һNõĹֵ——ʹֵҊ

 

5ϷʽɆΪʹّσɷN“^ֵ]ЌxֵcDZ^Iı^ИI]x

 

֣ȫ߅H

 

һЈ

 

1ˮƽwFЈYɱҲǺЈYЧָ
2p܉ƶԭ҇δȫЈ˴ڹٷʺgʵIJдڵĠrٷʣyʣȫЈ挍YɱYPϵ
3һyжڴʣǰ3%JжڟoLUą˜䵹ˮǰЈoBӯ1/0.03=33.33ƱЈCӯʵڴ˔ֵtʾͶYڹƱЈ܉@øߵ
4ϺygʣShanghai Interbank Offered RateQShiborcُʣRepurchase rate@ɂʱ^挍طӳЈYIJ^Čx@ɂָͨҕڟoLUʵą˜ĵӳЈĄӑBӯʷ
5yеؔaƷҲһdzõЈoLUʵą˜
6NЈʵľCֵwFЈwYİȫ߅HֱӻgӵӰͶY˵LUƫ

 

ʹֵ
 

1ʹֵЈİȫ߅H

 

“IrQ”

 

=/IrӋ㹫ʽDQһIr=/@ʽVͶY@һŒOһҹ˾ÿ0.3ԪҪ@ஔЈoLUˮƽO4%ôIƱăr횵7.5ԪIr=0.3/0.04=7.5

 

Q֮Ƀr7.5ԪrͶY߾܉@øЈʵ7.5Ԫ@ӋYԱJԓƱİȫ߅Hֵ


2ʹֵ

 

һyдLShiborُyؔʷքe빫ʽɵóһğoLUʅ^g@^gЈİȫ߅HֵĸߵֱӰͶYߵYaòҲgӵӰЈwYȥ

 

ۿcr


ֵ횸wИIIԁ_ӯЃN߀Ǹ׶ķֵʹֵoՓһNֵ“IrQ”ԭIrԽtδʾԽ

 

1֙nMԭt——ҪD
 

]܉򾫴_ӋƱărֵҲ]Iڽ^ĵcuڽ^ĸcmŴȫ߅Hͷ֙nMԭtЧIJȲeʧCҲ

 

2ֵķ֙nMԣmϾLڷؔI
 

efijILЃʅ^g1.2M߿1.5Ѓʕr֙nIӋ磺1.51.31.110.9……֙nŴȫ߅HĿ“eʧ”wķ֙nrҕr

 

cI෴OijILӯʅ^g20ԏ18ӯʣ0.9r_ʼO÷֙nuӋ磺0.9r1.0r1.1……

 

3“Dη헻ԭt”M

4εY


֙nMǵMҲǽʽIuLUƵĽǶfһƱijւ}^~Ya30%

 

IJ֣ײc픲

 

һpcp


ÿEPSwFIӯrӯP/EӳͶYˌIӯrAһǬFһԸS˹pָЈ֮rEPSP/EλAӋIFӯc֮ǰIƱӯD̘IůIEPSҰSЈAںDP/E߸FԸͬ܉ͶY펧ɃrıЧ@þ޴ͶY؈

 

r^ǴS˹pS˹ppyڔwF֮rɃrѽĿȫҪYϢǰД@ycҲܙzͶY߹IJȻбȻ??

 

ùɲµ

 

һ|I҂ҪľdzmPע͵ȴȴЈeęC@NCҪ෽عЈCИIȺͺZ¼ȵڷͶY߶S˹pęC“ǧdy”ǔһ

 

һpɹɃrϝq1|I^Iпϝqʮһe^pIęCɃrҲSҲ]пܻصpǰˮƽͶYĘȤڌ@ӵĹƱ܏

 

ƫҊ
 

ݛՓЈwķŴЩһЈλĴC^cзƸľ޴ӰǞyԵ@־о޴ЈӰݛՓҲQ֮“ƫҊ”ƫҊЈRƫҊķԽxdzͶYߵĻ

 

_˹ķՓJ飺rڅݵҪƫҊƫҊĸԴnj棨Œ^ژ^^ڱ^A߀ǻоnj҃rֵƽcֻ^Ј犔[āƽcͣһ΄——Ј犔[ЧŞМʂͶYṩ˙C

 

ƱrֵĸIƫҊcFرxЈ犔[_ʼDrrؚwď¹ɃrĘOΑBƫҊЈ犔[ļҲaKDͶY߶JķИOҪ——犔[cƫҊķǷһ

 

DE

 

1ЃrֵϢ
 

„ݛՓ_ʼF
Л]иO˵rF
^hЈYl׃
ƫҊĿښⲻôԶFҊϵr

2I_ʼЄӣ
ُ۱˾Ʊ
IlչĿ˰l׃
IՓe

3ؔՔC
ָ
ĺ׃
\IY׃

4ЈC

Ƀr_vʷͣߣֵ^g
DγFO߄
ɽF׃
YȯF׃

 

YZ

 

ںyø߶ȸZȫϵyUһͶY߉݋ͶYһTˇgM@ǧ܉vƺÿһ䶼LƪՓfȻ҂ͶYĵһAԿYWr֮Pڼ

һƪINՄб؂ʮԪ һƪX˺͸F˵˼SD팦
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